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ESPN fantasy analyst Liz Loza published her Week 4 ‘Facts vs. Feelings’ column on September 30, 2026, recommending Trevor Lawrence and Aaron Jones as starts and urging caution on Seahawks rookie Jadarian Price. The recommendations rest on three weeks of performance data plus Week 4 matchups.
ESPN fantasy football analyst Liz Loza published her Week 4 “Facts vs. Feelings” start-sit column on September 30, 2026, urging fantasy managers to start Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence and Vikings running back Aaron Jones while tempering expectations for Seahawks rookie running back Jadarian Price. The recommendations, grounded in three weeks of 2026 season data and Week 4 matchup splits, arrive as fantasy managers set lineups for a week featuring the highest projected game total of the slate.
Loza’s case for Trevor Lawrence centers on both production and matchup. According to her ESPN column, Lawrence has thrown seven touchdown passes through three games, posted a career-high 67% completion rate, a career-low 9% off-target rate, and averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game. Loza noted that Lawrence’s Week 3 total would have been higher had he not taken a knee at the 1-yard line in the final minutes against New England — a play she said cost him a points-per-game average that would have rivaled his career-best 19.9 from last season.
The matchup argument: Loza wrote that the Cincinnati Bengals have faced the third-most pass attempts in the NFL (118) and allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game (287). With the Jaguars-Bengals game carrying the week’s highest projected total at 51.5 points and a tight 2.5-point spread, she projected Lawrence as a top-10 quarterback play.
On Aaron Jones, Loza acknowledged skepticism from readers about the 31-year-old but pointed to results: Jones was started in only 47% of leagues in Week 3 despite Jordan Mason’s placement on injured reserve, then finished inside the top 15 at the position with 14.2 fantasy points. Per the column, Jones has cleared 10 fantasy points in three straight games this season and five consecutive games dating to the end of 2025, with at least 22 touches and an 80% snap share in back-to-back weeks — a workload Loza said only Jonathan Taylor and Ashton Jeanty have matched. Against a Dolphins defense allowing an NFL-worst 27.9 fantasy points per game to running backs, she ranked Jones a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside.
On the sit side, Loza flagged Jadarian Price. The Seahawks rookie, fantasy’s RB39 overall, has posted fewer than eight fantasy points in three straight games, ranks 45th at the position with a 35% snap share, and has logged zero carries inside the 5-yard line. Loza also cited fumble issues and an incoming three-way committee with Zach Charbonnet’s return approaching.
Why These Calls Matter for Week 4 Lineups
Week 4 falls at a decision point in the fantasy season: managers are separating legitimate early performers from small-sample mirages, and start-sit calls at quarterback and running back often swing weekly matchups. The Aaron Jones recommendation addresses a widely doubted player — his 47% start rate in Week 3 showed most managers had benched him — meaning managers who continue to sit him may leave points on the table against one of the league’s most generous run defenses.
The Lawrence endorsement matters for managers holding underperforming quarterbacks, as his Week 4 matchup against Cincinnati projects as one of the highest-scoring environments of the week. Conversely, the caution on Price is relevant to managers who drafted the rookie on upside, since his declining snap share and committee risk suggest his early production may not be sustainable.
Loza’s Column and Early Season Trends
The column is part of Loza’s recurring “Facts vs. Feelings” franchise at ESPN, which she also hosts as a podcast, blending statistical analysis with a listener-advice format. This week’s edition opened with a listener anecdote — a Detroit Lions fan who called the column’s fantasy therapy voicemail line — before moving into the start-sit recommendations.
The three-player breakdown reflects broader early-season storylines: Lawrence’s development in Liam Coen’s offensive scheme and connection with receiver Parker Washington; Jones holding the Vikings’ backfield after Mason’s injured reserve stint; and a Seahawks backfield in flux as Zach Charbonnet nears a return, compressing the rookie Price’s role.
Where the Data Falls Short
All projections are forward-looking and rest on a three-game sample. The column was published before final Week 4 injury reports, so late-week designations for Charbonnet, Mason-related workload questions, or any Jaguars-Bengals personnel changes could alter the analysis. Loza’s source article was truncated in the provided material, so her full recommendations beyond Lawrence, Jones, and Price are not included here.
It also remains unclear whether Price’s snap share will shrink further once Charbonnet returns, and whether Lawrence’s efficiency marks — currently career bests — are sustainable over a full season.
Week 4 Kickoff and Injury Watch
Fantasy managers should monitor Week 4 injury reports and activation windows, particularly Charbonnet’s status in Seattle and any late designation affecting Vikings or Jaguars skill players. Results from the Jaguars-Bengals and Vikings-Dolphins games will test Loza’s projections, and her next installment is expected ahead of Week 5 with an updated read on whether Lawrence and Jones have sustained their early-season production.
Key Questions
Why does Liz Loza recommend starting Trevor Lawrence in Week 4?
According to her ESPN column, Lawrence has seven touchdown passes in three games, a career-high 67% completion rate, and a Week 4 matchup against a Bengals defense allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game (287) in the league’s highest-projected game (51.5 points).
Should fantasy managers still trust 31-year-old Aaron Jones?
Loza’s case: Jones has topped 10 fantasy points in three straight games, logged 22-plus touches and 80% snap shares in consecutive weeks, and faces a Dolphins defense allowing an NFL-high 27.9 fantasy points per game to running backs. She ranks him a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside.
What’s wrong with Jadarian Price in fantasy lineups?
Per the column, Price has fewer than eight fantasy points in three consecutive games, a 35% snap share that ranks 45th at the position, no carries inside the 5-yard line, fumble issues, and faces a three-way committee when Zach Charbonnet returns.
How reliable are these recommendations given the season is only three weeks old?
All three calls rest on a three-game sample plus matchup data, so they carry inherent uncertainty. The column was published before final Week 4 injury reports, which could change player availability and workload expectations.
Source: google-trends
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